TUI, the German travel operator, is set to release its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 on Wednesday. Analysts have provided revenue and profit forecasts for the company.
Revenue Forecast
According to one analyst polled by FactSet, TUI is estimated to generate €5.01 billion ($5.51 billion) in revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2023. This compares to €4.30 billion in the same period last year. Deutsche Bank previously noted that it expected TUI’s strong operating recovery to continue into the second half of 2023.
Adjusted EBIT Forecast
Analyst Cristian Nedelcu from UBS stated that the Bloomberg consensus for TUI’s adjusted profit before interest and taxes (EBIT) is €960 million, while UBS consensus stands at €980 million. It is worth noting that adjusted EBIT excludes exceptional and one-off items. In the previous year, the company reported an adjusted EBIT loss of €27 million.
EBIT Forecast
Nedelcu also provided insight on TUI’s EBIT, predicting a positive figure of €150 million compared to a loss of €42.5 million in the same period last year.
Key Considerations
Demand
UBS highlights that visibility for travel demand beyond the summer season remains uncertain. They expect that airline bookings in late September will offer a clearer indication of the health of travel demand. TUI historically sold around 87% to 88% of its summer schedule pre-Covid-19, with last year reaching 83% to 86% of program sold. The company previously mentioned robust summer bookings and high travel demand across all markets.
Impact of Greece Fires
Investors are likely to focus on the financial impact of the wildfires in Greece. UBS predicts a headwind of approximately €50 million in the fourth quarter. This projection takes into account repatriation costs, cancelled or modified bookings, and potential weakening demand for Rhodes in August. The situation in Greece may also negatively affect pricing during the late season.
