Hong Kong used to be a thriving hub for finance, but its status as a global financial center is fading due to China’s increasing political influence. Andrew Collier, the managing director of Orient Capital Research based in Hong Kong, states that the future of Hong Kong lies in being a major U.S. dollar bank for the Chinese economy. However, many Western expats have left the city in large numbers.
One of the significant factors contributing to the decline of Hong Kong’s financial status is Beijing’s erosion of the One Country, Two Systems doctrine. This played a crucial role in Taiwan’s recent election, where a party that takes a strong stance against China emerged victorious for the third consecutive time. Furthermore, Hong Kong has lost its position as Asia’s premier banking and investment hub.
Businesses that are not solely focused on China have shifted their operations to Singapore. In fact, Singapore surpassed Hong Kong in the Global Financial Centres Index compiled by consultant Z/Yen in 2022. Recently, Blackstone, a prominent private-equity firm, announced that it will be doubling its headcount in Singapore.
Mike Wardle, the CEO of Z/Yen, explains that Singapore has actively worked to attract growth in sectors such as wealth management and fintech, while Hong Kong has not demonstrated the same level of agility.
The decline of Hong Kong’s finance industry can be attributed to three major factors. Firstly, the imposition of China’s National Security Law in 2020 significantly reduced free speech protections and competitive elections in the city. Additionally, strict “zero Covid” policies imposed in 2022-23 further restricted economic activity in Hong Kong, contrasting with the swift recovery seen in Singapore and other competitor cities. Finally, the implosion of Chinese stock and bond markets has had a significant impact on underwriting and dealmaking activities. In 2023, Hong Kong recorded its lowest initial-public-offering volume in 20 years, totaling only $5.9 billion.
The decline in the financial services sector has resulted in a decline of 10% to 15% in employment since its peak in 2018. Furthermore, the presence of Westerners in Hong Kong has dropped by up to 30%, according to John Mullally, the Hong Kong managing director for recruiter Robert Walters.
Hong Kong’s Economic Prospects Amidst Political Challenges
The economic future of Hong Kong seems to be intertwined with its response to the challenges posed by China’s hard-line political shift. However, experts suggest that this issue might be less significant than expected in business terms. According to Z/Yen’s Wardle, the relative decline of Hong Kong can largely be attributed to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, he remains optimistic, stating that Hong Kong might surpass Singapore in terms of economic performance.
Despite such optimism, the ongoing show trial of dissident publisher Jimmy Lai for “conspiracy to collude with foreign forces” creates additional hurdles for Hong Kong’s recovery. To counteract this negative perception, Hong Kong economic officials have been engaged in a charm offensive. Finance chief Paul Chan’s tour of the U.S. and Europe last autumn aimed to assure investors that “One Country, Two Systems” is still intact. However, consultant Collier indicates that investors remain skeptical due to the lack of meaningful action in addressing the fundamental legal challenges faced by Hong Kong. Merely relying on superficial talking points does not inspire confidence.
Nevertheless, Hong Kong’s role as a major U.S. dollar bank for China presents an opportunity for growth, especially if markets there regain their vibrancy. The continued expansion of the “stock connect” trading regime between Hong Kong and mainland China, with plans to enable block trades, further strengthens its position. Additionally, the efficient 18-minute bullet-train ride linking Hong Kong with the financial hub of Shenzhen enhances connectivity.
However, there are potential pitfalls. If China shifts back to a bull market, Hong Kong may struggle to meet the increased demands. Job opportunities in Hong Kong now largely require fluency in Mandarin, excluding many expats from previous years. Qualified Chinese professionals may find better opportunities on the mainland, while Western-educated individuals often prefer staying in their home countries.
As Mullally points out, there could be a talent shortage if market conditions become more favorable. The headhunter’s assessment raises concerns about the future of Hong Kong’s workforce.
In conclusion, Hong Kong’s economic prospects are intrinsically linked to its ability to navigate its political challenges. While the impact of China’s hard-line stance is significant, the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic cannot be ignored. Despite attempts to reassure investors, it remains crucial for Hong Kong to address its legal challenges more effectively. The potential benefits from its position as a U.S. dollar bank and advancements in trading connectivity with mainland China offer hope. However, competition for talent and the preference of individuals to work in their respective countries pose additional challenges. The road to economic recovery for Hong Kong is uncertain, requiring strategic and decisive action.
